Njira yabatire mphamvu yosungirako dongosoloMitengo ya (BESS) yanyoza pafupifupi zoneneratu zonse zomwe zidachitika zaka khumi zapitazo. Zogwiritsa ntchito-sikeni lifiyamu-zoyikapo zomwe poyamba zinkagula $1,400 pa kilowati imodzi-ola mu 2010 tsopano zikuyenda pansi pa $125/kWh m'misika yambiri yapadziko lonse-kugwa kwapafupifupi 91% komwe kukukulirakulira. Mtengo wokwanira wosungira (LCOS), metric yomwe ili yofunika kwambiri pazachuma cha grid, yatsika mpaka pafupifupi $65/MWh kumapeto kwa 2025 m'misika yakunja kwa China ndi United States. Izi sizilinso zongoyerekeza. Zikuchitika ku Saudi Arabia, Italy, India-kumalo kumene malonda atsekedwa posachedwapa ndi manambala a makontrakitala okhwima.
Ndiye kodi mtengo ungatsikenso? Pafupifupi ndithu. Funso lenileni ndiloti mofulumira bwanji, ndi zomwe zatsala kuti zifinyidwe.
Chaka cha 40%.
Chaka cha 2024 chinali chankhanza kwa opanga mabatire-komanso chosangalatsa kwa ogula.
Kafukufuku wapachaka wa BloombergNEF wa mtengo wamtengo wapatali wasonyeza chinthu chimene sichinachitikepo ndi kale lonse: chaka cha 40%-pa{2}}chaka kuwonongeka kwa mitengo ya makina osungira mphamvu. Uku ndiye kutsika kochulukira kwambiri kwa chaka chimodzi kuyambira pomwe BNEF idayamba kusakatula mchaka cha 2017. Chiyembekezo chapadziko lonse chinafika pa $165/kWh pakupanga ma turnkey system, ndipo zotsatira zina zogulitsira zikusonyeza kuti opanga madivelopa tsopano akubanki pamtengo wochepera-$100/kWh womwe udzafike m'zaka ziwiri zikubwerazi.
Chinachiyendetsa icho nchiyani? Mphamvu zingapo zinasonkhana nthawi imodzi. Mitengo ya Lithium carbonate idatsika-kutsika ndi 83% kuchokera pachimake cha 2022 ku China. Kupanga mochulukira kunafika pamiyezo yosamveka, pomwe mphamvu yaku China yopanga idagunda 2 TWh motsutsana ndi 1.2 TWh yofunikira kwenikweni. Opanga ma cell adachita zomwe odziwa zamakampani amachitcha kuti "involution"-mawu ongonena zankhondo zowononga mitengo. Kusintha kwa ma cell akuluakulu (300Ah ndi pamwambapa) kunabweretsa zopindulitsa zomwe zidaphatikiza china chilichonse.
Mtengo wa paketi ndi wodabwitsa. Kafukufuku wa BNEF wa 2025 anapeza mapaketi a lithiamu-ion apakati pa $108/kWh padziko lonse lapansi, zosungirako zosasunthika zikugunda $70/kWh-45% pansi pa 2024. Koyamba kuyimilira kunakhala gulu lotsika mtengo kwambiri.
Chemistry Ndi Yofunika Kwambiri Kuposa Mmene Mungaganizire
LFP yapambana.
Mabatire a Lithium iron phosphate tsopano akulamulira malo osungira, ndipo kukwera kwawo kumafotokoza kutsika kwamitengo. Ndiwotchipa popanga, ndi otetezeka, ndipo safuna cobalt kapena faifi tambala{1}}ziwiri zazitsulo zokhala ndi mitengo yotsika komanso mayendedwe okhazikika. China ikuwongolera 98% ya mphamvu zopanga LFP padziko lonse lapansi. Kumeneko si kutayirapo.
Mabatire a NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) amapezabe ntchito pomwe kuchuluka kwa mphamvu kumafunikira kuposa mtengo wanthawi zonse, koma masamu amakomera kwambiri LFP pama projekiti a grid-. Mitengo yapakati ya LFP idabwera pa $81/kWh mu 2025 motsutsana ndi $128/kWh ya NMC. Kulipira 58% kumakhala kovuta kulungamitsa mukadzaza munda ndi zotengera.
Msika wazinthu za cathode ku China umafotokoza nkhani yakuda, komabe. Kuchulukirachulukira-matani 4.7 miliyoni pachaka motsutsana ndi matani 2.3 miliyoni a zinthu zenizeni zomwe amapanga-kwapangitsa kuti opanga atayike-kupanga maudindo kwa zaka zitatu zotsatizana. Makampani omwe sapanga phindu sangathe kuyika ndalama muukadaulo wam'badwo wotsatira. Beijing adazindikira. Zoletsa zogulitsa kunja kwaukadaulo wapamwamba wa LFP zidayambika chaka chino, ndipo boma lidaitanitsa misonkhano yadzidzidzi ndi opanga apamwamba omwe akuyesera kuyimitsa mpikisanowo mpaka pansi.
Mipata Yachigawo Amene Satseka Posachedwapa
Kusiyana kwamitengo pakati pa China ndi kwina kulikonse kumakhalabe kodabwitsa.
Makina aku China otembenukira ku $101/kWh mu kafukufuku wa BNEF wa 2024. US idabwera pa $236/kWh. Europe? $275/kWh. Izi sizosiyana zazing'ono. Amayimira zenizeni zenizeni zachuma kwa opanga mapulojekiti.
Chifukwa chiyani pali kusiyana?
China imapindula ndi maunyolo ophatikizika ophatikizika, kutsika mtengo kwa ogwira ntchito, magetsi otsika mtengo, kukhathamiritsa kwazaka zambiri, komanso kuchuluka kwa kupanga komwe palibe amene angafanane. Opanga aku China Tier 1 ali ndi zotayika zochepa zokolola komanso kugwiritsa ntchito bwino fakitale kuposa omwe akupikisana nawo kulikonse. Onjezani thandizo la boma lomwe limathandizira kukhazikika kwamakampani kwazaka zambiri, ndipo mumapeza ndalama zomwe opanga akumadzulo amavutikira kuzifikira.
The Inflation Reduction Act sanatseke kusiyana. Mapulojekiti a mabatire aku US amadalirabe ku China kutumizidwa ndi ma cell{1}}Kafukufuku wa BNEF adapeza kuti ma cell aku America alibe ziro. Ngakhale ndalama zamisonkho zosaphatikizidwa pa kuwerengera mtengo, mabatire a ku America-anapangitsa kuti mabatire akhale "pamtengo wokwera kwambiri," monga momwe katswiri wina ananenera.
Europe ikukumana ndi zovuta zofanana. Makampani aku China, omwe atsekeredwa kunyumba ndikuletsedwa misika yaku US ndi mitengo yamitengo, atembenukira kumayiko aku Europe ndi njira zochepetsera mitengo kuti asunge kuchuluka kwa malonda. Mpikisano unakula, koma opanga ku Europe sangafanane ndi mtengo waku China.
Kumene Ndalama Imapita
Kuwononga ndalama zamakina a batri kumawonetsa komwe kuchepetsedwa kwina kungabwere.
Chida chathunthu-chiwerengero cha BESS chimagawika kukhala:
Mtengo wa paketi yama cell (akutsika mwachangu)
Makina osinthira mphamvu (PCS)
Energy Management System (EMS)
Balance of System (BOS)
Kuyika ndi kugwirizana kwa gridi
Selo paketi yokha yawona kutsika mtengo kwambiri. Chatsala ndi chiyani? BOS, kukhazikitsa, ndi zotsika mtengo tsopano zikuphatikiza gawo lalikulu la ndalama zonse zomwe polojekitiyi imagwiritsa ntchito. Madera awa amakumana ndi zovuta zosiyanasiyana kuposa momwe chuma chamakampani chimapangidwira. Ndalama zogwirira ntchito. Zololeza nthawi. Mizere yolumikizirana.
NREL's Storage Futures Study inanena zaka zapitazo kuti kutsika mtengo kwa paketi kudzaposa zigawo zina. Kuneneratu kumeneko kwachitika kwambiri. Kutsika kwinanso kwamitengo kudzafuna kusagwira ntchito bwino kuchokera pakuyika, kuwongolera, ndi njira zolumikizira ma gridi-m'malo omwe kupita patsogolo kumakhala pang'onopang'ono komanso mochulukira.
The Cell Size Revolution
Mmodzi woyendetsa mtengo akupeza kusamalidwa kokwanira: kukula kwa maselo.
Opanga mabatire akuthamanga kuti apange ma cell akuluakulu-314Ah, 560Ah, ena okulirapo. CATL's Tener solution imafinya 6.25MWh mu chidebe cha mapazi 20. Zaka ziwiri zapitazo, 5MWh inkawoneka ngati yankhanza.
N’chifukwa chiyani zimenezi zili zofunika?
Maselo akuluakulu amatanthauza maselo ochepa pa dongosolo lililonse. Maselo ochepera amatanthawuza kulumikizika kochepa, kuchepa kwa ntchito yosonkhanitsa, kuchepetsa kusinthasintha kwa kayendetsedwe ka kutentha, komanso mphamvu ya volumetric bwino. Makina ogwiritsa ntchito ma cell a 300Ah + anali otsika mtengo pafupifupi 5% kuposa omwe ali ndi ma cell ang'onoang'ono pakuwunika kwa BNEF. Mawonekedwewa akamachoka kuchoka ku chilengezo kupita ku kupanga zochuluka, phindu lawo lamitengo limachulukirachulukira.
Chotengera cha 5MWh 20-foot chakhala chokhazikika pakati pa ophatikiza kwambiri. Osewera aku Western ngati Fluence, Powin, ndi Wärtsilä onse akumana pazofanana zomwe opanga aku China atsimikizira lingalirolo. Madivelopa ndi ogulitsa katundu adatsimikizira ku ESN Premium kuti makina ochulukirachulukira tsopano ndiye chinthu chokhacho chomwe chimatheka pama projekiti ampikisano.
Nanga Bwanji Njira Zina?
Sodium-ion yayamba kumveka. Zoyenera zina.
IRENA mapulojekiti a sodium-maselo a batri a ion amatha kufika $40/kWh-mitengo yowoneka bwino ngati apanga masikelo. Kuthekera kwaposachedwa kwa kupanga kumakhala mozungulira 70 GWh (zokhazikika ku China, mwachilengedwe), zolosera kuyambira 50 GWh mpaka 600 GWh zomwe zimafunidwa pachaka pofika 2030 kutengera yemwe mufunsa. Kusiyanasiyana kumawonetsa kusatsimikizika kwenikweni.
Ukadaulowu umapereka zabwino pakutentha kwambiri ndikupewa kuwonongeka kwa lithiamu supply chain. Koma LFP ikupitilizabe kusintha. Cholingacho chikupitirirabe. Makampani opanga njira zina za sodium-ion akukumana ndi mpikisano yemwe sakhala chete.
Mabatire oyenda, ma pumped hydro, compressed air, thermal storage-zosiyanasiyana zautali-zaumisiri wautali{1}}zikulonjeza ma profiles osiyanasiyana amtengo wa 8+ pakugwiritsa ntchito maora. Palibe amene apeza sikelo ya lithiamu{4} ion. Kupanga ma curve ophunzirira kumafuna kutumizidwa. Kutumiza kumafuna ndalama zopikisana. Vuto la nkhuku{8}}ndiloona.
Kuyang'ana M'tsogolo (Mosamala)
Kuyerekeza kwamitengo ya NREL mu 2024 kukusonyeza kuti mitengo ya 4-ola lifiyamu-yamaola 4 ikhoza kutsikanso 22-47% pofika chaka cha 2030 malinga ndi malingaliro apakati. Zochitika zawo "zapamwamba" zikukankhira ku kuchepa kwa 31% ngakhale zitatha izi mpaka 2050.
Zoyerekeza izi zidawonekera chisanachitike ngozi ya 2024 40%. Mitengo yeniyeni yagwera kale pansi pa zoneneratu zingapo "zabwino" kuyambira zaka ziwiri zapitazo. Kuneneratu za mtengo wa batire kwachepetsa olosera mobwerezabwereza.
Komabe. Zomwe zimayambitsa kuchepetsa mtengo-zopanga zinthu, mpikisano, kusintha kwa chemistry, kukhathamiritsa kwa ma cell-zikukhalabe m'malo. Kuchulukirachulukira kwa China sikuwonetsa chizindikiro chakusintha. Kupanikizika kwamtengo kumapitirirabe.
Kodi chingachedwetse chiyani? Kusokonezeka kwa chain chain. Mavuto a Geopolitical akuletsa kusamutsa kwaukadaulo. Zolepheretsa kupezeka kwa mchere (ngakhale mantha akusowa kwa lithiamu atha posachedwa). Miyezo ya chilengedwe kapena ogwira ntchito ikuwonjezera ndalama zopangira. Kuphatikiza kuchepetsa kuthamanga kwa mpikisano.
Bungwe la IEA likufuna kuchepetsanso 40% mitengo ya lithiamu-ion padziko lonse lapansi kuyambira 2023 mpaka 2030. Titaona kuti makampaniwa akuyenda bwino kwambiri kuposa zomwe amayembekeza kwa zaka khumi ndi zisanu zotsatizana, kubetcherana motsutsana ndi kutsika kwapadziko lonse kukuoneka kukhala kopanda nzeru.
Choncho, Inde
Yankho lalifupi ngati ndalama zosungira mphamvu za batri zitha kuchepetsedwa ndizosavuta mochititsa manyazi: zikuchepetsedwa kale, modabwitsa, mosalekeza, pamsika waukulu uliwonse. Mafunso osangalatsa ali kwina.
Ndi zotsika mtengo bwanji kuti mukonzenso chuma cha gridi? Mwina ife tiri pafupi. Pa $65/MWh LCOS, kulumikiza mphamvu ya dzuwa ndi kusungirako batire kumapangitsa kuti magetsi azitha kutumizidwa ndi njira zambiri zotsalira zakale. Kafukufuku wa Ember akusonyeza kuti kuwonjezera zosungirako ku solar kumakweza zonse-mtengo wake kufika pafupifupi $76/MWh-osati zotsika mtengo malinga ndi mbiri yakale, koma zosintha poyerekeza ndi zomwe zinkayembekeza zaka khumi zapitazo.
Kodi opanga aku Western adzapikisana bwanji ndi phindu lamtengo wa China? Zosamveka. Mitengo yamitengo ndi zofunikira zapakhomo zimapanga mitengo yamtengo wapatali, koma sizimapanga luso lopanga mpikisano. Mabizinesi ophatikizana ndi anzawo aku China atha kukhala njira yabwino kwamakampani omwe safuna kuvomereza zovuta zanthawi zonse.
Kodi ndi nthawi yayitali bwanji kuti china chake chisokoneze kulamulira kwa lithiamu-ion? Mwina osasunga grid. Mwina zaka khumi zikubwerazi. Mabatire olimba-akupitilirabe kulonjeza zamtsogolo zomwe sizikufika. Sodium-ion ingathe kupanga malo abwino. Koma LFP lifiyamu-ion ili ndi chitsogozo, zomangamanga zopangira zinthu, komanso kukwera mtengo kosalekeza komwe njira zina ziyenera kugunda pamene ikutsika pansi.
Nkhani yochepetsera mtengo wa batri sikutanthauza kuti mtengo ungagwe. Izo zathetsedwa. Ndizokhudza momwe zotulukapo zake zimachulukira m'misika yamagetsi, njira zopangira zinthu, maubwenzi apakati pazandale, komanso zachuma zoyambira kupanga magetsi padziko lonse lapansi.
Mafunde amenewo akuyamba kumene.