Padziko lonse lapansibatire mphamvu yosungirakokuyikapo kudzafika magigawati 92-247 gigawatt-maola-mu 2025, osaphatikiza madzi opopera, malinga ndi data yaposachedwa kwambiri ya BloombergNEF. Izi zikuyimira kulumpha kwa 23% kuchokera ku 70GW yomwe idakhazikitsidwa mu 2024, yomwe idachulukitsanso ziwerengero za 2023. Gawoli tsopano lapanga mbiri yake yachinayi motsatizana{{21}pachaka chotha. Ziyembekezo zakukula kwapachaka zimakhala pafupifupi 14.7% mpaka 2035, pomwe zowonjezera zapachaka ziyenera kugunda 220GW/972GWh. Kuchulukitsa kokhazikitsidwa padziko lonse lapansi kudzafika ma terawatts awiri pofika pakati pa 2030s. Ndiye inde-mayendedwe amakula. Funso lochititsa chidwi kwambiri ndiloti ndi liti, ndipo ndani amathera ku mbali yolakwika ya kukula.
Chaka Chilichonse Chinakhala Chachikulu
2025 ndi chaka cha pulojekiti ya maola a gigawatt-.
Osati mmalo mwachizolowezi. Kuyika kwa GWh-sikele kwakhazikitsidwa ku Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Australia, Netherlands, Chile, Canada, UK. A Saudis angolumikiza pulojekiti ya 7.8GWh sabata yatha m'malo atatu a zigawo za kum'mwera chakumadzulo-Sungrow adapereka makina opitilira 1,500 a PowerTitan m'masiku 58. Ikapatsidwa mphamvu, imakhala njira yayikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi yogwiritsira ntchito mabatire. Mbiri yapitayi inatenga pafupifupi miyezi isanu ndi itatu.
BYD idasaina makontrakitala a 12.5GWh pamasamba asanu aku Saudi koyambirira kwa chaka chino. Hithium adatenga 4GWh ina. Pofika pakati pa-2025, pafupifupi 13GWh ya grid-yosungirako inali ikugwira ntchito kapena ikumaliza ntchito yomanga mu Ufumu, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti 33.5GWh pofika 2026. Izi zipangitsa Saudi Arabia kukhala yachitatu pa msika waukulu kwambiri padziko lonse wosungira zinthu ku China ndi US. Dziko lomwe silinakhalepo pakusunga mphamvu zaka zitatu zapitazo.
Italy yakhala mwakachetechete msika wosangalatsa kwambiri wa batri ku Europe. Makina oikapo adakwera 23% m'chaka chathachi powerengera, koma 52% potengera mphamvu yamagetsi ndi 40% potengera mphamvu yamagetsi-makina akuluakulu omwe akukwera kwambiri. Zomera ziwiri za 800MWh{7}}zidabwera pa intaneti mu 2024 mokha. Aurora Energy Research imawutcha mwayi wokongola kwambiri wa greenfield ku Europe pompano, kumenya ngakhale mapaipi aku UK okhwima koma odzaza kwambiri.
China Imayendetsabe Table
Kupitilira theka la 2025 zowonjezera za gigawatt padziko lonse lapansi zidzafika ku China. Osati nkhani, koma kukula kwake kumakhala kodabwitsa.
Beijing idachotsa lamulo losungiramo zinthu zatsopano zongowonjezedwanso koyambirira kwa chaka chino-zomwe zimayenera kuchedwetsa zinthu. Sizinatero. Maboma akuzigawo amapitiriza kulengeza zofuna zawo. Mu Seputembala, chandamale chatsopano chosungira dziko chinawonekera, ndikutsimikizira kuti kuchotsedwa kwaudindo kunali kuyang'anira nyumba m'malo mobwerera m'mbuyo. Kusinthaku ndikulowera ku msika-kuchuluka kwa msika kudzera mu malonda apanthawi ndi apo komanso madongosolo a chipukuta misozi. Kaya izi zimagwira ntchito bwino kuposa zomwe zidaperekedwa ndi funso lotseguka. China imakonda kuzindikira zinthu.
Opanga aku China amawongolera pafupifupi 80% ya msika wapadziko lonse wa batri. 20% yotsalayo nthawi zambiri imadalira zinthu zaku China. Ulamulirowu umafikira m'makona onse a supply chain-active anode materials, graphite processing, LFP cathodes. CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, CALB, Hithium: Mayina awa akupezeka pazolengeza za polojekiti kuchokera ku Riyadh kupita ku Rome kupita ku Queensland.
Vuto la kuchuluka kwa mphamvu likupitilirabe. Kuchuluka kwa kupanga kugunda 2 TWh motsutsana ndi 1.2 TWh yofunikira kwenikweni. Opanga ma cathode akhala akulephera-kupanga maudindo kwa zaka zitatu zotsatizana. Owona zamakampani ena amagwiritsa ntchito mawu oti "involution"-mpikisano wowononga womwe umapindulitsa ogula uku akumabisa opanga. Beijing idaitanitsa misonkhano yadzidzidzi ndi opanga apamwamba chaka chino, kuyesera kuyimitsa mpikisanowo mpaka pansi. Zoletsa zaukadaulo za LFP zidayambika. Boma likufuna akatswiri apanyumba, osati crater.
Ma Data Center Lowani Macheza
Apa ndi pamene zinthu zimakhala zosangalatsa mofulumira.
Gartner project data center ikufuna kukula ndi 16% mu 2025 mokha, kenaka kuwirikiza kawiri pofika 2030. AI-maseva okhathamira adzayimira 44% ya mphamvu zogwiritsidwa ntchito pa data center pofika 2030, kuchokera pa 21% lero. BloombergNEF idakonzanso mphamvu zake zaku US data center kukwera ndi 36% mu Disembala-kufikira magigawati 106 pofika 2035.
Awa ndi magetsi okwana 100 miliyoni m'mabanja.
Mizere yolumikizira ma gridi ku Virginia yatalika mpaka zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri. Osati miyezi isanu ndi iwiri. Malo opangira ma data akupikisana wina ndi mnzake komanso ndi china chilichonse chosowa cholumikizira, zosinthira, ma switchgear, ndi akatswiri amagetsi oyenerera. Vutoli silikhalanso likulu kapena zomangamanga-ndikulandira chilolezo cholumikizira.
Malo osungira mabatire akuwoneka ngati cholinga-chofunika kwambiri pagawoli. Malo osungiramo data amagwira ntchito 24/7 ndi zofuna zazikulu zomwe ma gridi omwe adakhazikitsidwa sanapangidwe. Mabatire amatha kusintha kusinthasintha, nsonga zosalala, kupereka zosunga zobwezeretsera popanda ma jenereta a dizilo, ndi{{5}m'malo mwake-kulola kuti malo azikhala ndi mphamvu mwachangu pochepetsa zofunika kukweza ma gridi.
Wood Mackenzie akuti 53GW ya "katundu wamkulu" kuphatikiza malo opangira ma data ndi malo opangira zinthu zidzabwera pa intaneti pazaka khumi zikubwerazi. Kuwapatsa mphamvu kumafuna, m'mawu awo, njira ya "zonse zomwe zili pamwambapa". Kusungirako ndi gawo la "pamwambapa".
Tariff Situation Ndi Vuto
Msika waku US umayenera kuwonjezera 15-19GW ya malo osungira zinthu zofunika kwambiri mu 2025. Izi zinali kuchitika Epulo isanafike.
A Trump adakweza mitengo yamitengo yochokera ku China kupita ku 145% koyambirira kwa Epulo. Kenako kuima pang'ono mu Meyi kunachepetsa mitengo mpaka 30% mpaka pakati-August. Kenako mitengo yowonjezereka ya graphite-93.5% pamwamba pa 25% ya Biden-ntchito zakale-zinafika mu Julayi. Zinthu zogwira ntchito za anode zimayang'anizana ndi kufufuza koletsa kutaya. The ogwira tariff mlingo pa Chinese lifiyamu-ion maselo osungira mphamvu panopa akuthamanga penapake pakati pa 54% ndi 104%, malinga ndi gulu ndi sabata mufunsa.
Zoyambira za BNEF-kuwunika kwamilandu kukuwonetsa 54% mitengo yamitengo yokwera-maola anayi ndi 30% mu 2025, kufika $266/kWh. Mawonekedwe awo a 145% akuwonetsa kutsika kwapachaka kwa 51-74% pakati pa 2025 ndi 2027 poyerekeza ndi zomwe zikuyembekezeka.
Anza Renewables adanenanso mu June kuti mitengo ya AC system ndi 56-68% kuposa milingo ya Januware, kutengera gawo la msika. Kumeneko si kutayirapo. Ntchito zikuyimitsidwa, makontrakitala akukambirananso, kusinthanso ma chain chain.
Chisokonezocho chili ndi mzere wokhotakhota wa siliva: kutumizidwako kunathamangira patsogolo kuti adutse masiku omaliza. Zogula kuchokera ku South Korea zidakwera ndi 225%-kupyola-kotala kotala pomwe opanga adafunafuna-zochokera ku China. Zosunga zidawunjika. Mapulojekiti ochedwerapo-afika poyambilira. Manambala a 2025 akuwoneka bwino ndendende chifukwa aliyense amayembekeza kuti 2026 idzawoneka yoyipa.
Opanga ku Korea-LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK On-ali m'malo kuti akwaniritse mipata yomwe imapanga. LG imagwiritsa ntchito malo okhawo a LFP omwe amapangidwa ku US, pafakitale yake yaku Michigan. Samsung ndi SK akusintha mizere kapena kusaina mapangano ogulitsa. Zofunikira zapakhomo zitha kukakamiza kumasulira kulikonse. Funso ndi nthawi, kukula kwake, komanso ngati makampaniwa angafanane ndi mtengo waku China. Umboni wamakono: ayi.
Europe Yadzuka
Italy idawonjezera kupitilira 6GWh ya malo osungira atsopano mu 2024-chaka 58%-pa-pazaka zambiri-zothandizira{10}}kuwerengera 3.4GWh. Ndiko kuwonjezereka kowirikiza ka 15 pazowonjezera zazikuluzikulu poyerekeza ndi chaka chapitacho. Pofika Seputembala 2025, dzikolo linali ndi makina 848,814 olumikizidwa ndi electrochemical yosungirako zomwe zikuyimira pafupifupi 17.5GWh yamphamvu yamagetsi.
Dziko la UK linafika pafupifupi 5.9GW/8.2GWh ya mphamvu ya BESS yogwira ntchito koyambirira kwa chaka chino, ndi 6.3GW/13.2GWh ina yovomerezeka ndikugwira ntchito mwachitukuko. Aurora Energy Research imapanga 10.3GW yokhazikitsidwa ku Europe lero ikukula mpaka 55GW pofika 2030 ndi 126GW pofika 2050.
Germany idawoloka ma batire olumikizidwa ndi mamiliyoni awiri mu Julayi, ndi 14.5GW yamagetsi oyikidwa ndi 22GWh yamphamvu yomwe ilipo. Dziko la Finland linakhazikitsa zochepetsera misonkho ndi 20% pa PV-kuphatikiza-zosungirako zinthu. Romania idatulutsa njira zosungirako zolipiritsa zosiyanasiyana za gridi, kudula ndalama zogwirira ntchito 20-30%. Dziko la Netherlands lapereka ndalama zokwana €100 miliyoni zothandizira kutumizira mabatire chaka chino.
Gridi-sikero idalanda malo osungidwa ku Europe koyamba mu 2024. Injini yokulira ikusintha.
InfoLink ikupanga msika waku Europe ndikuwonjezera 27GWh mu 2025, kukwera ndi 41% chaka-pa-chaka. Italy imasungabe korona wake, Germany ili pamalo achiwiri, ndipo zothandiza-kukhazikitsa ku Spain, Belgium, ndi mayiko ena akusinthiratu chikhalidwe cha UK{7}}Germany{8}}Italy triangle.
Nanga Bwanji Njira Zina?
Mabatire oyenda ali ndi phokoso. Muyenera ena.
Eos Energy ndi Invinity Energy Systems apindula ndi dongosolo la UK la LDES Cap ndi Floor. ESS Tech inakhazikitsa 10MW/100MWh iron-flow system ku California mu Seputembala, yomwe imathandizira kutulutsa kwa maola 12-. Form Energy idakhazikika pamalo ake oyamba opangira chitsulo ku West Virginia, ndikutsata njira zotulutsira maola 100.
Vuto: palibe makampani awa omwe adawonapo phindu. Eos idalumpha ndalama zokwana 240% chaka-pa-chaka mu H1 2025 komanso inakulitsa chiwonongeko chake kufika $207.8 miliyoni. Msika womwe si-lithium chemistry ulipo koma udakali wochepa. Madivelopa ambiri amatsatira zomwe zimagwira ntchito pamlingo.
Lithium-ion imakhala kale ndi 70% ya 64.7GWh yapakati-masiku (8-maola 12) autali-mapulojekiti olunjika pofika chaka cha 2030. Mpweya woponderezedwa ndi wachiwiri pa 20%. Zina zonse-mabatire othamanga, mpweya wamadzimadzi, kutentha, mphamvu yokoka-yogawitsa 10% yotsalayo.
BNEF imanena kuti malo osungiramo mpweya wotentha ndi woponderezedwa atseka kusiyana kwa capex ndi lithiamu-ion kwa nthawi yayitali: $232/kWh ndi $293/kWh motsatana, motsutsana ndi $304/kWh kwa{4}}maola anayi{4}}makina a lithiamu mu kafukufuku wawo wa 2023. Koma kutseka mpata ndi kupambana mpikisano ndi zinthu zosiyana. Lithium-ion ikupitabe patsogolo. Cholinga chimayenda.
California's 2027 centralized procurement mpaka 1GW of 12-hours to 12-hours is not include aatali-atali a lithiamu-mabatire a ion-kusankha mwadala kuti matekinoloje omwe akutuluka apereke umboni. Kaya atsimikizira chilichonse sichidziwika.
Ndiye,-Mwachiwonekere
Msika umakula. Funso limenelo silinali funso.
Zowonjezera zapachaka zakhudza mbiri ina. Kuchulukirachulukira kumathamanga. Misika yomwe ikubwera ikuthandizira kuti masheya awonjezeke-Middle East ndi Africa idakwera 381% mu 2025, zomwe zidakhala dera lomwe likukula mwachangu-padziko lonse lapansi. Mitengo ya paketi inatsika ndi 45% posungirako zinthu zonse mu 2025, kugunda $70/kWh ndikupangitsa mabatire kukhala gawo lotsika mtengo la lithiamu{10}}ndi koyamba.
Kukula kumakhala pamwamba pa maziko osalimba, komabe. Kulamulira kwamakampani aku China kumatanthauza kukangana kwapadziko lonse lapansi kumatanthawuza kugwedezeka kwamitengo. Misonkho yaku US yawonetsa kale momwe ndalama zimachulukira mwachangu pamene mfundo zamalonda zikusintha. Mizere yolumikizira ma gridi imatalika zaka ku US ndi UK. Kufuna kwa data center kumatha kuchulukirachulukira zida zisanachitike.
Koma kukula? Inde. Manambalawa ndi osadziwika bwino. Mordor Intelligence ikupanga msika wofikira $ 465 biliyoni pofika 2030. Fortune Business Insights ikuwona kusungidwa kwa batire kukugunda $ 114 biliyoni pofika 2032. GM Insights ikuneneratu mokulirapo.machitidwe osungira mphamvumsika woposa $5 thililiyoni pofika 2034. Makampani olosera sangagwirizane pa kukula kwake{2}}njira zawo zimasiyana kwambiri{3}koma mayendedwe ake ndi amodzi.
Zomwe zimachitika mkati mwa kukula ndizofunika kwambiri. Kaya zokhumba za Saudi Arabia zikwaniritsidwa panthawi yake. Ngati gridi ya ku Europe-ikukulirakulirabe komwe kumakhala anthu. Kaya kupanga ku America kumafikira mtengo waku China. Kaya ogwiritsira ntchito data center amatha kupeza mphamvu makasitomala asanachoke. Kaya ma chemistries amtundu wina amajambula ma niches kapena kufota m'mawu am'munsi.
Amenewo ndi mafunso ochititsa chidwi. Kukula kumangopereka maziko.