Thekusunga batirenkhondo zikuwonjezereka. Ndipo moona mtima? Zikukhala zovuta kusunga mbiri ya yemwe akupambananso.
Nkhani ya Tesla Aliyense Amalankhula
Simungalembe za kusungirako mphamvu mu 2024 osayamba ndi Tesla. Amawakonda kapena amadana nawo, apeza malo omwe ali pamwamba pazokambirana.
Izi ndi zomwe zidandichititsa chidwi: Tesla adatumiza 31.4 GWh yosungirako mphamvu chaka chatha. Amenewo si typo. 31.4 gigawatt-maola. Kukwera 114% kuchokera ku 2023. Ngakhale kuti bizinesi yawo yamagalimoto inali ndi nkhawa aliyense (zotumizira zidatsika kwa nthawi yoyamba), gawo la Megapack linali mwakachetechete kukhala makina opindulitsa enieni.
Fakitale ya Lathrop ku California ikutulutsa ma Megapacks mokwanira tsopano-40 GWh pachaka. Shanghai nayenso ali pa intaneti. Ndipo Musk adanenanso kuti Megafactory yachitatu ikubwera, ngakhale sananene kuti. Classic Elon.
Chosangalatsa ndi nkhani yam'mphepete. Ngakhale kuti magalimoto onse a Tesla amapitilirabe kutsika (mpaka 18.4% chaka chatha), kusungirako mphamvu kugunda 26.2%. Werenganinso izo. Bizinesi ya batri imapanga ndalama zabwinoko kuposa magalimoto. Nthawi zakutchire.
Koma Dikirani-Sungrow Ali Pomwepo
Apa ndi pamene zinthu zimakhala zosangalatsa. Pamene aliyense anali kuyang'ana Tesla, Sungrow adawonekera paphwando ndipo anati "Hei, ifenso tiri pano."
Manambala a Wood Mackenzie amafotokoza nkhaniyi: Tesla adagwira 15% msika wapadziko lonse lapansi mu 2024. Sungrow? 14%. Kusiyana kumeneku kunali 4 peresenti chaka chapitacho. Tsopano ndi kutembenuza ndalama.
Pulofesa Cao Renxian adayamba Sungrow mu 1997-chaka chomwecho ndi Google, kwenikweni. Kwa zaka zambiri, anali "kampani" ya inverter. Kenako china chake chidadina. Ndalama zawo zosungira mphamvu zidaphulika 127% mu theka loyamba la 2025, kupitilira ma inverter a PV ngati bizinesi yawo yayikulu kwa nthawi yoyamba.
Maulendo aku Europe amakuwuzani chilichonse. Sungrow adachoka ku 10% mpaka 21% pamsika ku Europe mchaka chimodzi. Akugwirizana ndi aliyense kuchokera ku BBOLT ku Benelux kupita ku Schouten Energy ku Netherlands. Ngakhale makampani aku America akuda nkhawa ndi mitengo yamitengo, makampani aku China akuyendetsa chiwonetserochi kudutsa nyanja ya Atlantic.
CATL: Chimphona Chabata Chomwe Sichikhala Chete
Mukudziwa zomwe zimandisokoneza? Aliyense amalankhula za Tesla ndi Sungrow m'malo ophatikiza a BESS, koma CATL yakhala pamenepo monga opanga ma cell padziko lonse lapansi ndipo palibe amene akuwoneka.
Dongosolo lawo la TENER linasintha masewerawa pomwe idakhazikitsidwa mu Epulo 2024. Kuwonongeka kwa Zero kwa zaka zisanu. Lolani izi zilowe mkati. Mabatire ambiri amataya mphamvu nthawi yomweyo-ndi fizikisi chabe. CATL mwanjira ina analingalira momwe angagwiritsire ntchito "biomimetic SEI" ndi "self-kusonkhanitsa matekinoloje a electrolyte" (mawu awo, osati anga) kusunga ma ion a lithiamu akuyenda popanda zovuta zowonongeka.
Ndipo manambala akukulirakulirabe. TENER idayamba pa 6.25 MWh pachidebe chilichonse. Kenako kunabwera TENER Flex kwa malo olimba a ku Europe. Tsopano pali TENER Stack yokwana 9 MWh-yokwanira kutchaja magalimoto amagetsi okwana 150 kapena kulimbitsa nyumba yaku Germany kwa zaka zisanu ndi chimodzi. Kuchokera ku chidebe chimodzi.
Pofika mwezi wa November 2024, CATL inali itatumiza mapulojekiti oposa 1,700 m’mayiko 40+. Kulephera kwawo? Mtengo wa PPB. Ndi magawo pa biliyoni, kwa omwe akusunga zigoli. Rolls-Royce akuthandizana nawo. Fluence amagwirizana nawo. Tesla akugula maselo kuchokera kwa iwo.
The BYD Paradox
BYD ndizodabwitsa. Ndipo ndikutanthauza kuti m'njira yabwino kwambiri.
Ndiwochuluka kwambiri ku Europe-30% yogawana nawo msika wosungiramo nyumba zogona mu H1 2024. Makina opitilira miliyoni imodzi a BatteryBox oikidwa osatetezedwa. Kafukufuku wa EUPD adawatcha mtundu wapamwamba kwambiri ku Germany, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Poland, ndi UK.
Koma apa pali mfundo: sakupikisana kwenikweni m'malo omwe Tesla ndi Sungrow amathandizira-sikelo. Mphamvu zawo ndi zogona. Mndandanda wa BatteryBox kuyambira 2015. BatteryMax Lite yatsopano yogwiritsira ntchito malonda. Gridi-sikero ikukula, zedi, koma apa sipamene BYD idapangira dzina.
Anangosaina pangano la 12.5 GWh ngakhale-limati anali pulojekiti yaikulu kwambiri padziko lonse yosungira batire ya grid-. Kotero mwina izo zikusintha. Ndi BYD, zinthu nthawi zonse zimawoneka kuti zikusintha.
Msika Palibe Amene Anawona Akubwera
Ndiroleni ndikuuzeni za EVE Energy kwa mphindi imodzi.
Simunamvepo za iwo? Palibenso anthu ambiri kunja kwa China zaka zingapo zapitazo. Tsopano iwo ali pa nambala yachiwiri padziko lonse lapansi potumiza ma cell osungira mphamvu. Anaposa BYD mu 2024. Osati m'magalimoto, mwachiwonekere-m'mabatire.
CATL imatumiza mwachangu kwambiri. EVE Energy imatumiza pafupifupi 15 GWh pa kotala. Ndiye muli ndi Hithium, REPT, BYD, ndi CALB onse akumenyera malo apamwamba otsala. Mpikisanowu ndi wamisala. Mipata yogawana pamsika yochepera 1% imalekanitsa wachitatu mpaka wachisanu ndi chimodzi.
Opanga aku Korea? Samsung SDI ndi LG Energy Solution zatsika kuchokera pa nambala 6 ndi 8 mu 2023 kufika pa nambala 10 ndi 11 mu 2024. Makampani aku China sikuti akungopikisana-akutsogola.
Masewera a Regional Chess
Geography ndi yofunika kwambiri kuposa momwe anthu ambiri amaganizira pamakampani awa.
North America: Tesla ndiye eni ake amsika. 39%, mtunda woposa wina aliyense. Makampani aku China akutaya mwayi pano-kutsika kuchokera pa 23% kufika pa 16% chifukwa cha mitengo yamitengo komanso sewero lazandale. Zofunikira zapakhomo za IRA sizikuthandiziranso osewera akunja.
Europe: Nkhani yosiyana kotheratu. Makampani aku China adakwera 67% pachaka-pa-chaka. Osewera anayi mwa 10 apamwamba aku Europe tsopano ali ku China. Sungrow anachulukitsa kuwirikiza kawiri gawo lawo la ku Ulaya.
Middle East: Malire atsopano. Saudi Arabia, UAE-akumanga ntchito zazikulu. Ophatikiza aku China monga Sungrow, BYD, ndi Huawei akulamulira. Wood Mackenzie akuyembekeza 31 GW / 115 GWh ya kukhazikitsa pofika 2034.
Asia{{0}Pacific: CRRC ili pamwamba. Makampani aku China amawongolera 90% ya msika. Sikuli pafupi.
Nanga Bwanji Fluence?
Funso labwino. Fluence{{1}the Siemens{2}}Mgwirizano wamakampani a AES{3}}kale anali osewera atatu apamwamba padziko lonse lapansi. Ali ndi 9.4 GW yotumizidwa ku 225+ mapulojekiti m'misika 47. Gridstack Pro system. Pulogalamu ya Fluence IQ. Zaukadaulo kwambiri.
Koma gawo lawo lamsika likucheperachepera pomwe mafunde aku China akupitilira kubwera. Ku North America akadali apamwamba 5. Padziko lonse? Akulimbana kuti akhalebe oyenera. Kampaniyo idangopanga phindu kumapeto kwa 2023-koyamba. Kotero pali chiyembekezo. Koma chitsenderezo champikisano ndi chosalekeza.
Mpikisano wa Technology Umakhala Wodabwitsa
Apa ndipamene ndikufunika kutulukira pang'ono.
300+ Ma cell a Ah adakhala odziwika bwino mu 2024. Pafupifupi theka lazinthu zonse zotumizira{2}}zotumizidwa tsopano zimagwiritsa ntchito. Koma opanga akukonzekera kale 500+ Ma cell a Ah mu theka lachiwiri la 2025. Selo yatsopano ya 587 Ah ya CATL imakwaniritsa mphamvu za 430 Wh/L.
N’chifukwa chiyani zimenezi zili zofunika? Maselo akulu=maulaliki ochepa=makina osavuta=otsika mtengo. Kuchuluka kwa mphamvu pagawo lililonse kumakwera 30%. Mapazi a station akutsika 20%.
LFP (lithium iron phosphate) chemistry ikupambana nkhondo yosungiramo zinthu. Ndizotetezeka, zotsika mtengo, ndipo CATL/BYD zakulitsa kupanga mpaka zomwe palibe amene angafanane nazo. NMC ikadali pafupi pomwe kachulukidwe kamphamvu kamafunikira, koma mayendedwe ake ndi omveka.
Mabatire a sodium-ion? Chisangalalocho chinazirala. Mitengo ya LFP idatsikabe, ndipo mwadzidzidzi vuto lazachuma la sodium-ion linavuta kupanga. Ntchito zina za niche mwina. Koma si anthu oukira boma analosera.
Zoona Zosasangalatsa Zokhudza Chitetezo
Gridi-kuyaka kwa batire sikochitika koma kumakhala koopsa zikachitika. Izi ndizofunikira kwambiri kuposa momwe anthu amafunira kuvomereza.
CATL idapanga nsanja yonse yotsimikizira kuti iwonetsere zochitika zachitetezo. Kuwunika kwawo kwa AI{1}kumayenda 24/7. Makina a TENER amakwaniritsa miyezo ya IEEE693 ya zivomezi-ya zivomezi zazikulu 9, Gulu 5 la mphepo zamkuntho.
Kukhazikitsa mamiliyoni a BYD ndi ngozi za zero ndikosangalatsa. Koma chochitika chimodzi chapamwamba{1}chikhoza kusintha kaganizidwe kamunthu kamodzi. Makampani akudziwa izi.
Ndani Kwenikweni Amapambana?
Ndikunena zoona-Sindikuganiza kuti palibenso yankho losavuta.
Pamakina othandiza-makasikelo, Tesla amatsogola padziko lonse lapansi koma Sungrow akupumira m'khosi. CRRC imalamulira Asia. Msika ukuchepa, osati kuphatikiza-osewera 5 apamwamba kuchokera pa 62% kuphatikiza magawo mu 2022 kufika pa 47% mu 2023.
Kwa maselo osungira mphamvu, CATL ndiye mtsogoleri womveka bwino. EVE Energy imakhazikitsidwa yachiwiri. Aliyense akumenyera zotsalira.
Zokhalamo, BYD ili ndi Europe. Tesla's Powerwall imagwira ntchito ku US ndi Australia. Enphase ndi Sonnen ali ndi ma niches awo.
Nkhani yeniyeni si ya yemwe ali #1. Ziri za momwe msika wonse ukukulira-35% mu 2025 yokha, malinga ndi BloombergNEF. Pali malo opambana angapo. Osachepera pano.
Kumene Izi Zonse Zikupita
BloombergNEF imapanga 220 GW ya kukhazikitsidwa kwapachaka pofika 2035. Kukula kwapachaka kwa 14.7% kwa zaka khumi zikubwerazi. Msika wosungira mabatire ku Europe wokha ukhoza kugunda $87 biliyoni pofika 2033.
Gigawatt-maola ma projekiti anali odabwitsa. Tsopano akutumizidwa ku Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Australia, Netherlands, Chile, Canada, ndi UK. Sikelo ikupitilira kukhala yopusa.
Opanga aku China apitiliza kukula kutsidya lina, ndikukhazikitsa mafakitale ku Europe kuti apewe zopinga zamalonda. Ndondomeko yaku America ipitiliza kuyesera kupanga maunyolo apanyumba. EU's Battery Regulation imawonjezera zofunikira za carbon footprint zomwe zingasinthenso kupeza.
Ndipo kwinakwake ku California ndi Shanghai, Tesla Megafactory yachitatu ikukonzekera. Chifukwa mumakampani awa, kuyimirira kumatanthauza kugwera kumbuyo.
Malo osungira mphamvu amasintha nthawi zonse. Masanjidwe ndi ziwerengerozi zikuwonetsa zidziwitso za 2024-2025 ndipo zidzasintha pomwe msika ukupitilira kukula kwake. Chitani kafukufuku wanu musanapange zisankho zilizonse zogulira kapena kugula zinthu.